We’re terrible at predicting the future

Posted: September 11, 2014 in Uncategorized

There is an interesting article I ran across today. Entitled, “Why would anybody buy an Apple Watch?” the article, http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2014/09/why-would-anybody-buy-an-apple-watch/379969/  asks an interesting question through the lens of history. In 2007, many predicted that the iPhone would fail and had plenty of data to back up their stories. All of these people were right. Based on the data available at the time, it should have been a complete utter failure. None of this data took into account the human condition. The experience of being exposed to a mobile device with converged functionality and a multi-touch display. People liked it and smartphones across the board evolved into a new way. How many years did it take Apple to get to the point?

Next week Linaro Connect begins. Many experts within the ARM ecosystem will assemble in Burlingame California to interact and set plans for the next 6 months of engineering activity. Our collective job is not to just predict the future, it is to implement it.

At the heart of Open Source development is the mantra of release early, release often. Apple does not do this. They work and work and work and work some more and eventually release something. Open Source on the other hand iterates quickly. We strive to hit the stage where the human condition can be exposed to a design and implementation as soon as possible and subject our work to the rigors of many eyes so that evolutionary dead ends don’t last long.

The longer you wait to release something, the larger your risk.

Member companies that join Linaro are at an advantage. Through their membership they live at the nexus point of good fast iterative upstream engineering united with technical leadership. Failure happens. The faster you can fail by exposing the code to experts, the more you lower your risk and the quicker, through iteration, get onto the right track. Our members in turn are first to receive the fruits of those labors for their future products.

At a website called kickstarter inventors bring their ideas and expose them to a marketplace where people evaluate and fund the promising inventions.

Linaro is like kickstarter but better for our member companies. The ideas flow in from our members and engineering teams, are discussed at Connect and even outside of Connect, great engineering happens and the promising becomes the next great thing. At kickstarter you don’t get to influence the design, in Linaro a member company does.

See you at Connect. It’s going to be a great week.

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