2012 Mobile & OSS Predictions

Posted: December 30, 2011 in Uncategorized

Many a pundit puts together predictions for the next year but they aren’t engineers.

  • Voice will drive new user interface innovation in 2012. Android will do something to try and catch up with Siri but  include ads in some fashion. Apple will open up the Siri API so that 3rd party developers can take advantage of it.
  • Mobile app authors will continue to make more money on iOS than Android.
  • Windows 8 on anything but intel will flop. PC sales will continue to slow as tablets will take the place of PCs for some.
  • RIM is doomed. I expect tar, feathers and pitch. It won’t end well.
  • Nokia will continue to free fall.
  • We will see significantly increased display resolutions in the tablet space. The iPad will gain a retina display and Siri. There will be some sort of android based tablet that will follow up with that kind of resolution as well. Likewise in the workstation/laptop space with thunderbolt going onto all intel motherboards come mid year, thunderbolt will take off and display resolutions will fly by 1080p.
  • Android based tablets will continue to fail.
  • Amazon will evolve the fire and follow on products to the fire. Like Apple they will pitch their offering as an integrated solution with apps, books, movies and music. It’s not about the processor anymore. Their sales will be good.
  • Apple will release an updated Apple TV but not a TV. It’ll include the ability to run apps, paired with the networks (channels are apps, apps are channels) and it will include Siri voice control. GoogleTV will continue to go no where.
  • This will not be the year of the Linux Desktop.
  • WebOS development will gain a following in open source circles once the source is released. It will be ported to arm development boards. The device manufacturers will gain interest. However none will ship a phone based on it this year.
  • Use of the GPL/LGPL will continue to wane. Use of BSD/MIT/Apache licenses will continue to rise.
  • Server Linux on ARM will for the time being be experimental. However it sill start to gain a following as ARM server hardware will continue to evolve.

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